Showing posts with label war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label war. Show all posts

For Adja: Security and the Environment

>> Saturday, October 24, 2009


Adja asked: What do you think about environmental scarities and security? Are they connected? Can environmental scarities imapct on the regional or global security? And how much?

I'm going to presume you meant "scarcities" (we all have typo issues from time to time) and answer accordingly.

Short answer: Yes, I do think they're related and have been since time immemorial.

Long answer: If you study history, the answer is inescapable. Of course, the resources aren't always the same. For instance, much of the fighting over the lands of China were over areas that were very fertile, because fertile farmlands were meant the difference between feast and famine. In fact, fighting over the rights to crops or to sell particularly crops have incited a number of wars, including the insistence to sell opium to the Chinese (Opium war) and take tea in return.

Resources can be gold and silver, can be wood or foods, can be tea or drugs, even liquors.

Wait, wait, you're thinking, those aren't natural resources or environmental scarcities. But they are definitely related. In an area where rain is scarce or only happens for short bursts all year, food and water are environmental treasures, while, in a rainforest, they might not be.

What we fight over changes from era to era, but we fight over them nonetheless. When food was the big commodity, the fertile crescent and the bounteous banks of the Nile were the treasures and many fought over those lands over centuries. Now that oil is the driver, the battlefields have changed location, but they still exist. It's a sad commentary on us as a species that we have so often used religion as an excuse to take what wasn't ours instead of honestly recognizing we were just thieves, whether it was the rich woodlands of the Native Americans or the gold-heavy Aztecs we destroyed under the rationale they were "heathens" to the Indian (as in India) farmlands and treasures we occupied for centuries. We've fought over access as the Soviet Union did to try to get a warmer water port since all of their rivers freeze over in winter. We've fought over access to rivers, especially in parts of the world where they are the only sources of fresh water.

Historically speaking, some of the poorest peoples in the world have been sitting on terrific resources (as, for instance, Africa has in abundance). As those with education and technology covet those resources, they often fight among themselves, leaving those natives caught in the crossfire or, more commonly today when global condemnation is a factor, they each arm a side of the native population and pretend they're disinterested parties. Too often, though, greed is a factor.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that the resources this world has are enough for all of us if we worked together, if we stopped worrying about controlling it and helped everyone use their resources for their own benefit. Oil, coal and natural gas won't last forever (and the environmental repercussions if we use them to exhaustion are frightful), but there are plenty of alternatives if we go after them. Just the food wasted in America could feed a few countries.

We (I mean humans) spend a lot of time and effort, a lot of bullets and blood, trying to make sure our little pocket of humanity won't run low on resources - but, by doing so, we use resources that everyone could use for their own betterment. I just hope, someday, we learn that we can do much more working together than we can fighting each other.

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For Aron: Maslow Window

>> Friday, June 19, 2009


Aron asked: I've noticed NASA is sticking the the 2020 date for a moon mission which is the middle of the next Maslow Window. Does NASA support the Maslow Window theory?
Wouldn't you know someone would ask me a question I have no clue what the answer is? I've never even heard of the Maslow Window theory.

However, I do love to learn new things. Finding out what you were talking about was actually tricky, but I found this little presentation on the Maslow Window model, where there's an increase in "energy" every 56 years or so that leads to major war, major engineering accomplishment, major exploration. And then they show the last two hundred years or so and tell us we have until 2025 to get our acts together if we want to get back to the moon or Mars.

Well, I will tell that I have never, in 20 years at NASA, heard anyone reference a Maslow window or profess a need to make a window attached to it. To the best of my knowledge, the 2020 time frame is a direct reference to the expected time to get there (remember, there ware more than a decade of development before we ever set foot on the moon), how long it will take to build up the hardware and workable designs, not just to do what we did before, but more - and address the issues we discovered the last time we set foot on the moon.

Personally, I didn't find the data backing the Maslow window compelling. What about WWII? Or other wars around the world? Why just wars we were involved in? There's fighting all the time somewhere, sadly. As for development, what about the telephone and Kitty Hawk, both well before WWI? What about the incredible developments during WWII including nuclear weapons and, yes, rockets - surely as impressive in their right as what happened after. What about the computer strides and strides in communication.

The other problem with the theory it assumes a causation. War leads to industry. Economies move in cycles. There are too many explanations.

Better to go back to the moon when we have a good design, well tested, that has addressed what we've learned before and has systems we plant to use on Mars then trying to catch some ephemeral window.

Schedule pressure has cost cosmonauts and astronauts. I'd rather not.

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