Hiatus Interruptus - For Jeff King: Where Will We Go?

Jeff King asked: If we ever travel to a planet, i mean actually going there ourselves in a spacecraft. What one do you think it would be, and when?

Well, do you count the moon? 'Cause, in my opinion, that's the way to go.

Why, you might ask. Because the moon is close at hand, an excellent place to test out all the things we're going to need when we move to other planets. Any other planet is months (if not years) to get to, a complicated trip where, if anything goes wrong, there are limited options to correct the rescue them. If the US doesn't make it there in the next ten years or so, other countries are also considering it and they will go there first.

However, if the moon doesn't count, it will be Mars. Why?

First, although Venus is technically closer, it is very inhospitable. Hot - I mean DAMN hot, toxic atmosphere, high pressure (like deep underwater type pressure). Right now, we just don't have equipment that can protect people from this kind of harsh environment. Protecting people from vacuum and temperature extremes found in "deep space" is child's play next to protecting people from temperatures that will melt lead (literally) or exposure to sulfur dioxide.

The gas giants are very very far away with no place to land. Some of the moons to the gas giant have possibilities as places to explore. But, as for planets, Mars will be first.

When? Not sure. It depends on when we come up with the right plan and then DO it. Not soon enough.

Now returning me to my regularly scheduled hiatus.

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Ask Me Anything Hiatus

I haven't been getting a lot of questions lately, largely because I haven't been manning this blog like I should. But, really, life has left me a little shorter on time than I like. Two blogs are hard to manage.

Soooooo, I'm leaving this one up, with this as an explanation. If I get the odd question, I'll go ahead and answer it on my other blog Rocket Scientist. If I get inundated, I might open it back up and address some more questions. Otherwise, look for your answers there as you need them.

And, if my life becomes one of leisure (haha!), I might just come back and make this blog a winner again.

At least as much a winner as it ever was. I hope.

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For Kim: Advice for Mark

Kim asked: can you pleas give me one card reading about someone i love. My question for the cards is What is the cards advice' regarding Mark? Thank you!

I'm not entirely sure I understood the question, but I think you want a single card reading.

Ooookay.

Coins VIII (reversed) - This card often denotes, uh, stinginess and can indicate a person who is extremely close with money. However, there's also an aspect that can denote reducing losses with careful economy and hard work.

Without having any real data here, I'd have to say that things aren't necessarily hopeless, that being careful with money and doing his best might just let him ease through his troubles.

Hope that helps.

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For Aron: Don't Panic

Aron asked: [I read this article]. How bad is this? Should I worry? What can I do to increase public support of space?

It's not. You shouldn't. It's perfectly predictable. Encourage people to watch Avatar.

Why?

Lots of reasons, not the least of which is that it's changed 20-30 points (depending on the question, both up AND down) in the last year. Since space programs are part of a long-haul deal, no one should give a snapshot in time too much credence.

Well, you also shouldn't worry because, with the economy in the toilet, people are all for shutting down businesses that cut down jobs - as long as they're not their own. Ironically, about the worst thing to do at this junction is to cut more jobs, nor is reducing the pool of jobs for the scientifically and engineering inclined smart for the future of the country. But people don't see it that way. They're afraid of the deficit (and the deficit we're looking at is pretty scary); however, money spent on jobs does a great deal more to help against the recession than paying banks so they can distribute them to their top numbskulls by the million dollar handful.

However, part of it is also that NASA isn't exactly blowing anyone's skirt up with visible fabulousness at the moment. Even the community that should all be singing the same tune on space exploration is torn because of some serious concerns with the current path. And part of that is that the path and goals aren't agreed upon or even clear to all involved. Certainly not to the public.

Additionally, there are many who are thinking, what with the recent Falcon launches and some other commercial contenders, that private industry might take us back to greatness if NASA isn't up to it. I'm not sure if they will. The incentives are still pretty sketchy and I'm not entirely convinced all of the contenders are aware of what they're really up against. I'd love to be wrong, though.

People still want space; they're just not sure our path right now is the right one. Well, I can see that. I wish I could say I'm confident we're on the right path myself. I do think Bolden is good for the agency and I'm sure Obama understands that a strong NASA supports his own goals of increasing our science and technology base and our economy. But it's a hard road under the best of circumstances and, right now, it's not.

That might very well change. The economic climate could improve. NASA could do something spectacular. Truth is, no one wants to be sitting on their hands as China, Russian India, ESA and Japan trip the light fantastic. And possibly commercial interests. NASA, or another incarnation, will survive and we will be part of it. Truthfully, I tend to think of "all mankind" when it comes to space. I also think that the more baskets we spread our eggs in, the better chance we have of success. I want the US to be a big part of it, but I know someone will be doing it even if we get too caught up in our other priorities to do it right here, right now. And that's what matters in the long run.

Right now, reminding people why space is worth pursuing is the best way to keep up support. And Avatar is the best way I know (though some disagree). I read an article today that expressed, exactly, just why it affected me so completely, why I never had a bit of trouble with seeing it as pro-science. Check it out. For me, it's a reminder of why I got into science in the first place.

Hope that helps.

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For Soubriquet: Reconciling the Mystical and Science

Soubriquet asked: How does a rocket-scientist reconcile Science with Tarot and Palmistry, and other mystical phenomena? It's a serious question. Do you believe that tarot cards can predict the future, that a person's fate is written in the lines of their palm?

I think it's an excellent question (though I've touched on it before). I actually thought I could do some searches and provide examples, but I probably didn't label it well. I rarely do.

What I've said before, and I hold by this, is that there is no conflict for me.

I understand and accept that data and facts are required, as well as rigid adherence to the scientific process, for something to be scientifically valid, to be science, whether it's a "fact" or a theory (which is subject to challenge). Reality is not forgiving and doesn't give partial credit. When someone says they "believe" something will be strong enough or powerful enough or reliable enough for human lives to depend on, they better have the data to back it or I'll be asking some hard questions and, on a few occasions, providing a formal protest.

But I'm also a living breathing person with imagination and feelings and all that goes with it. I dream. I envision. And I don't disbelieve in anything that can't be readily disproven.

Does that conflict with my scientist persona? Absolutely not! Why would it? The world is a fascinating and amazing thing. People do things no one could imagine. I'd be twenty times the fool thinking I know so much that, if I can't explain it or prove it, it can't be. I'm not that arrogant. And most of the good scientists I know are equally slow to discount something out of hand.

Some of the mystical things I believe, some I don't. But I don't disbelieve any of them. I, personally, believe in reincarnation and the potential for psychic power - or magic if you prefer -, a higher power or deity, souls and magic. I don't personally believe in heaven or hell, Satan, demonic possession or Santa Claus. I don't take the Bible as a literal translation of anything but the words of other people (and even that is doubtful). I don't believe in anything that argues treating others with hatred and fear.

I don't insist or expect anyone to share my beliefs. I'm perfectly satisfied with my beliefs as they are and, in fact, will discard one if it can be disproven. I don't discount the possibility that things I don't believe in to be true; I just don't personally believe they are. However, in either case, my beliefs and my what I don't believe, neither is fact and I'm careful not to let what I believe put myself and others at risk. I don't confuse it with science. Why would I?

I believe my children are wonderful. I love them dearly. Neither of those are scientifically derived, yet they are both true. By which example, I can demonstrate that what we have accepted as science does not encompass all that is true. I don't know what else is true.

Now, I don't hold with things that are demonstrably false and, therefore, potentially dangerous, such as anti-vaccine nonsense or that people have no appreciable effect on the climate. Others aren't potentially dangerous, like the lunatics who believe we never landed on the moon, but I don't see any reason to pander to them either.

The mystic, however, can neither be proven or disproven. I am an advocate of freedom of religion and/or belief as long as those beliefs harm no one else. I have frequently (but don't remember to on every post) encouraged people not to take tarot readings too seriously. Do I think they truly tell the future? Well, I don't know. I discount the possibility. It could be that, at best, you see what you already knew to be true in the cards whatever turns up. It could be more than that. Originally, I didn't think they could do anything. Now I'm not so sure. I do believe people can understand each other, communicate on some unexpected wavelength that allows one person to discern truths a person has not even acknowledged themselves, but I believe it comes the questioner. But it's a belief, not science, and I've never tested it and would never recommend anyone build their lives based on what a tarot reading told them.

People who refuse to have their children treated for treatable illnesses, like diabetes, I have no respect for. Pray all you want, have whoever you want put their hands on her, try any non-dangerous mystic cure you care to - but don't fail to take advantage of modern science while you're at it. If my child were in danger, I wouldn't turn my back on any solution that could help (as long as it did no harm).

Apparently, many people have a hard time with separating the two. I have to admit, that just confuses me. My openness to what hasn't been proven or disproven, I consider part and parcel with being a scientist. Many a great scientist was also a great mystic or deeply religious. After all, part of being a scientist is admitting what you don't know...

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For flit: What Do You Think of the X-Prize?

(Photo created by Armadillo Aerospace/Matthew C. Ross)
flit asked: Ross & I have been watching a lecture by Peter Diamondis ...about the X Prize stuff... how do you, as a safety geek, feel about the X Prize competitions as a way of pushing innovation? How are the safety issues handled...especially when it comes to space exploration, of course, and is it good enough?

It's a good question. I'm torn in several ways. First, an artificial incentive is not as good for building and maintaining a long-term space capability. There must be another incentive behind it or either the prize will go wanting or people will build something that barely meets the requirements and then let it go. Enthusiasts will be attracted, but that is not guarantee of long-term involvement.

Secondly, a prize that stipulates too much by way of needs (like demanding a reusable craft that can land horizontally) can restrain innovation, having people focus on a particular solution rather than figuring out the best solution.

Having said that, I do believe, quite strongly, that an artificial incentive is certainly better than none at all. Just because one doesn't have a profit motive to begin with doesn't mean you can't find one if you have a viable design solution. Truthfully, most of the competitors for the X-Prizes spent more in development than the prize itself, hoping to leverage success into more opportunities. That does speak well of hte future. Let's face it, we all know what commercial human space innovation has accomplished in the 50+ years since this business really got cooking. Not much. If an incentive kick-starts it, that's not a bad thing.

However, as a safety person, I' concerned, particularly in the commercial world, not because of the X-Prize but because the FAA has been mandated (by Congress) to stay out of the space safety business until at least 2012 (other than making sure no one drops bit o' rockets on the unsuspecting public). That means, if you step on to a rocket or space tourism vehicle, you are completely dependent on your provider, with no oversight, to ensure your safety. The rationale behind this to compare this to the early days in aviation where the attrition rate of pilots was astronomical. As a space safety person, the mind cringes.

I'm not sure that's a valid line of reasoning, but that's politics for you. Does that answer your question?

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For Aron: Tell Me What it Means

Aron asked: What does this mean? Orbiter: OV-105 / ET-134 / SRB BI-141 / RSRM 109 (VAB HB-1)

Let's break it down:

The first bit, OV-105, is the Orbiter Vehicle Designation, the one that tells us which Orbiter it is (as we still have three). In this case, OV-105 designates, for instance, Endeavour, the newest Orbiter, constructed as a replacement for Challenger in 1992. Only five space-worthy operational Orbiters were built: OV-099 (Challenger), OV-102 (Columbia), OV-103 (Discovery), OV-104 (Atlantis) and OV-105 (Endeavour). There were two other developmental prototypes: OV-098 (Pathfinder - a structural model) and OV-101 (Enterprise). Enterprise was designed to be the original Orbiter design, but without engines or heat shield; i.e. not spaceworthy. However, they did tests with Enterprise, including vibration tests, mated (to the Boeing) flight tests, and detached landing tests.

Why "Orbiter" and not "Shuttle" - well the part that comes back, the plane-like part, that lands some 4-24 days after launch is technically called an Orbiter in the Shuttle world. The whole system, Orbiter, External Tank, Solid Rocket Boosters, is called the Shuttle Transport System (hence the STS in the flight designation: STS-107, for instance). Just so you know

That leads us to the ET-134. That designates which External Tank it is. Each flight requires a new ET (they are not reusable and burn up in reentry). I think they are just numbered in order of construction, though they are not always flown in that order.

Similarly, I believe the SRB (which stands for Solid Rocket Booster) now called the RSRM for Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (also Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor) are just listed by number. I often hear the terms RSRM and SRB used interchangeably (even in technical circles), but, technically the RSRM is a redesign of the original SRBs. The SRBs/RSRMs have always been reusable and the cases are plucked from the drink not long after launch, refurbished, reloaded with solid rocket fuel and reshipped to KSC.

The last bit, I believe, has to do with where it sits in the Vertical Assembly Building (VAB), as in which High Bay (HB). But I'm speculating there.

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For Adja: Tell Me About My Love Life

Adja said: i'd like to know what have the tarot cards to say about my love life for the coming year. Thanks!

Okie-dokie.

Past - Knight of Coins - Knight of Coins is usually associated with a person, often a methodical plodding person, someone patient, hard-working and good with his hands, but also unimaginative, stubborn and potentially self-righteous. There could be a preoccupation with money. To me, this card either reflects you, practical and patient, but not exciting to the people around you or, more likely, someone you've been involved with, someone you cared about, perhaps a great deal, but not necessarily someone who excited you.

Present - Coins X - This card is usually associated with financial security. It could be that, for whatever reason, you've found that or that the person you've been associated with is a practical mature and financially successful individual. Either way, it feels to me like it's associated with the first card. Either you've eschewed any exciting relationships up until now, as you focused on career or financial security or the person you've allied yourself with has accomplished this.

Future - XI Justice - This card is all about balance, harmony and just deserts. Here's what it's not telling me: no exciting or fatuous love affairs, no abusive relationships. According to the cards, you have spent a practical moderate life and the relationships ahead of you, at least this year, whether a continuation of an existing one or a new one, will be practical moderate and, likely, just as successful.

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For Aron: Increasing Efficiency

Aron told me: My first semester didn't go that well. I got a B- in all my classes. My parents where happy with the scores, but I'm not. I made stupid mistakes on my tests and I could have understood the material better. If it was a real engineering project, I could have killed someone. I need to get better at training for my profession to be an effective engineer. It's not a matter of time, I spend every moment I can in the library and I use to program called leechblock to block all the sites that can waste my time. I can only get more efficient. After reviewing the material with some of my professors, most of my mistakes where misunderstandings. I made a list of things I could do to be more efficient. Do you think this will be effective? They are in order from most important to lest important. Lecture day procedure -Hand write a copy of lecture notes -Complete Gantt chart activities {I break down my problem sets and reading into bit sized chunks on a Gantt chart, I find it very effective} -Write down how I completed each question on problem set -Type copy of lecture notes in Onenote -Review lecture recordings and type in material uncover by personal notes -Read relevant Wikipedia articles and type in material uncovered by personal notes -Review references used in textbook -Create relevant flash cards based on material reviewed that day -Create practice questions based on material reviewed that day -Watch relevant Youtube videos {There are some real great lessons on the topics I cover on Youtube, I feel I need to make time to watch them} -Get one day ahead on Gantt chart actives -Complete club responsibilities -Submit end of day actives Email {I have a friend who will let me send the a report with the things I planned to get done during that day and the things that I actually got done during that day. He said he would get on my tail if I don't keep up with my schedule} -Check all emails ------------------------------- Non-lecture day procedure -Complete Gantt chart actives -Spend 5 hours on lab actives -Compile lecture notes for Youtube lecture -Record myself lecturing on the material in class and post on youtube -Create relevant flash cards based on material reviewed that day -Create practice questions based on material reviewed that day -Compile a practice test -Get one day ahead on Gantt chart actives -Complete club responsibilities -Submit end of day actives Email -Check all emails

Aron, darling, when you're struggling with a full plate, there are several potential problems.

One is a lack of organization. I don't think that's your problem. Clearly you take your education seriously and want to do your best. And you make sacrifices to accomplish your goals.

Another is having more than one can fit in a day in your day. That could be part of your problem. There are so many hours in the day and filling each and every day with an endless litany of repeating activities that may or may not stimulate your mind can not only be disheartening and exhausting, but also can turn off the useful/creative parts of your brain, the very pieces you want to stimulate.

With just so many hours in the day, what should you do? My thought is to (a) find a creative outlet or something that give you pleasure, preferably something that doesn't directly deal with school, or (b) find a physical activity that you can do without too many restrictions (like facilities, cost or time available). The goal is to find something to relieve stress, something that you enjoy that you can use to preclude burnout (which is all but a given with the all-work, no-play itinerary you've given). This is not just to keep from going crazy, but also to help you focus. When it comes to learning, too much can make it harder to focus, rather than helping you learn.

Give yourself the time you need to do each of your necessary tasks and add repetition judiciously. Piling it on can become counterproductive. If there's something you struggle with, practice those, but not everything indiscriminately. The feeling of being overwhelmed is hardly conducive to learning or good work.

Take a break once in a while. See a movie, go to dinner with a friend, read a book that takes you away from your work instead of adds to it. Those mindbreaks can do wonders for giving it the rest it needs before absorbing more.

I have complete faith in your abilities, Aron. Good luck!

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